Property market turns pessimistic amid Middle East crisis: NUS
International political headwinds are casting a shadow over Singapore’s real property industry, according to the most up to date Realty Sentiment Index (Resi) presented by the National University of Singapore (NUS). The Composite Sentiment Index dipped to 4.9 in 1Q2026, from 5.8 in the very last quarter.
Nevertheless, belief in the prime residential market has actually relaxed. While the sector held a favorable current final balance of 5% in 1Q2026, the figure is a noticeable decline from the 41% logged in the former quarter. “The prime residential industry is inherently a lot more sensitive to shifts in global capital and global buyer sentiment,” mentions Qian.
Made by NUS’ Department of Real Estate and Institute of Real Estate and Urban Studies (Ireus), the Resi tracks assumptions and expectations of the real property market via quarterly surveys of senior execs in Singapore real property companies.
“With the Composite Index sliding beneath the neutral threshold, it is clear that the industry is shifting from an expansionary mindset to one of defensive consolidation as organizations change into a ‘risk-off’ position,” claims Qian.
Teacher Qian Wenlan, supervisor of the NUS Ireus, attributes the gloomy shift in the industry to macroeconomic headwinds stemming from the dispute occurring in the Middle East. “The ongoing disaster in the Middle East– with its cascading effects on surging power prices, relentless inflation, and elevated interest rates– has dampened property view right here in Singapore,” she explains.
One Sophia CEL Development and Singhaiyi Group
Offices fared relatively better. While the sector’s existing net balance slid to 0% from the 12% in 4Q2025, low Grade A vacancy and a constrained upcoming supply pipeline are expected to bolster this segment, mirrored in a positive future outlook of +15%.
Both the current and future sentiment indices fell in 1Q2026. The past contracted to 4.9 from the previous quarter’s 6.1. The last slid to 5.0 from 5.5 in the preceding quarter.
Survey results suggested 50% of property developers expect greater rates for new property launches for the next 6 months, while 60% anticipate launch quantities to hold firm, supported by resistant purchaser demand.
Belief also dropped in the retail and hospitality real estate markets. The prime retail and suburban retail segments logged current net balances of -20% and -15% for 1Q2026, whilst the hotel and serviced apartment segment had a current net equity of -15%.
Still, the residential housing market continues to be steady, with participants reflecting determined confidence in the suburban non commercial market. Across all property sections, rural property covered the listing with a positive present internet balance and future web equilibrium of +15% each.
It comprises a Current Sentiment Index and a Future Sentiment Index, that monitor modifications within the prior 6 months and the next six months, specifically. Scores from both indices are accumulated to obtain a Compound Index, that shows general market sentiment.
Across commercial and industrial sectors, views extensively decreased. The business park and hi-tech room market led this downturn, posting a present net equilibrium of -25% and a future net balance of -20%.
